Has anyone had their first week free ranging their chickens go terribly wrong?

You seem to worry they will leave you, they won't. They will try to stay "home" as long as they feel safe. That said, I've only had trouble when raccoons were getting into my coop through weak spots. My babies decided that the front porch was safer, probably because they were closer to me. I solved all the problems with my coop and they go to bed at night with no trouble.
I live on the gulf coast so we don't need much cold weather protection, we need heat protection. My coop is wire with a sheet metal cover that comes below the roost on the sides, especially the north side, blocks the cold wind. Not pretty but very functional. They go out every day from about noon to night, helps to ensure we get more of the eggs.
A good rooster is the best defense for predators. Our Bob was unbelievable! He fought off as many as 3 dogs at once. We never lost a girl with him. He finally succumbed to his many injuries and old age and I've missed him every day. We had him at least 12 years.

I had Guinea hens and they couldn't leave me quick enough. I have tons of predators here so I can only let them out of their run under supervision. I've just been super scared they would take off or wander into the woods.

I had a fox kill 4 of my guinea hens for sport right in front of me.
 

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