Hurricane season 2024

[Patiocoturnix]

Also I’m genuinely curious if anyone knows why NOAA has been making like a hook around the storm?

 

[Patiocoturnix]

Oh? On the news tonight it looked like they were saying it would be good for Tampa if it passed to the south of the Bay. Perhaps I misunderstood? Don't the winds blow counter-clockwise?

Maybe I’m not 100% sure but I do know even if the bay doesn’t get sucked out if it goes south the worse side of the storm is on the north side which is very rare on almost every single storm it is on the south side.

 

[azurbanclucker]

Also I’m genuinely curious if anyone knows why NOAA has been making like a hook around the storm?
View attachment 3961077View attachment 3961078View attachment 3961079View attachment 3961080View attachment 3961081

If you're meaning the flight path of the P3's, they're sampling all around the storm to gauge where things like wind speeds change, where moisture bands are, what the ocean surface is doing in/around the storm, etc... The more data points they can sample, the better able they will be to forecast what it's going to do. They need direct measurements from all over the storm, as well as indirect measurements from the surrounding waters for that, but you don't exactly want to fly down the throat of 200 mph headwinds so you come at it from the side or rear and put that wind behind you to help push you through in case it gets exciting overflying the eyewall.

 

[BigBlueHen53]

True. But they were saying that due to the way the winds blow, they would pull the water AWAY from the city, instead of driving them into the bay and over the city in a catastrophic surge. If the eye passes to the south of the Bay. Is how I understood it. It sounded like good news for Tampa.

Sorry, responding to Post #172. Shoulda quoted it.

 

[azurbanclucker]

Maybe I’m not 100% sure but I do know even if the bay doesn’t get sucked out if it goes south the worse side of the storm is on the north side which is very rare on almost every single storm it is on the south side.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

 

[Patiocoturnix]

If you're meaning the flight path of the P3's, they're sampling all around the storm to gauge where things like wind speeds change, where moisture bands are, what the ocean surface is doing in/around the storm, etc... The more data points they can sample, the better able they will be to forecast what it's going to do. They need direct measurements from all over the storm, as well as indirect measurements from the surrounding waters for that, but you don't exactly want to fly down the throat of 200 mph headwinds so you come at it from the side or rear and put that wind behind you to help push you through in case it gets exciting overflying the eyewall.

Thank you I was just wondering why such weird flight paths that makes sense.

 

[SourRoses]

@BigBlueHen53 @Patiocoturnix

I find it confusing myself about the wind directions, but here's a helpful thingy I found yesterday which helped me figure out where the blowies would be coming from for us this time...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-80.22,27.12,2405

 

[azurbanclucker]

@BigBlueHen53 @Patiocoturnix

I find it confusing myself about the wind directions, but here's a helpful thingy I found yesterday which helped me figure out where the blowies would be coming from for us this time...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-80.22,27.12,2405

That's a cool tool.

I spy a disturbance in the Eastern Pacific too. Maybe that can break our blocking high and start moving things more seasonally.

 

[Nym]

Evacuating is easier said than done. Believe me I've been in that situation. People say just leave, well it's expensive to leave on top of the stress where to go and how to get there, what about the animals. You will more than likely have to stop to get gas and you wonder will there even be gas when you need it with thousands upon thousands of other vehicles doing the same thing you're doing. The interstates at a standstill and the back roads just the same. I feel for folks in its past, I hope yall make it through ok.

I saw a few videos of people leaving for Milton after Helene destroyed much of what they have. All their belongings are now piled high all along the street just waiting to become projectiles.

 

[SourRoses]

Also, if I'm stressing folks with the updates, please let me know and I'll stop. You've got enough on your plates without me adding.

No way! You're good. It's helpful because we're all tuned in down here anyway.
Every little bit of knowledge we can manage to pick up can help.
I was at Wal mart earlier to pick up a few last minute things and they had an alert going every 10 minutes talking about the storm.

All the bread was gone, peanut butter, and TP. But they left the paper towel alone
The gas station on the way home was out of gas (thankfully I didn't need it) the attendant told me they'd had 3 deliveries in the past 24 hrs trying to keep up.

Are these all Waffle House locations? You guys have that many?

Well, it's FL, so... Every single highway exit or busy city street has a Waffle House, Taco Bell, 2-3 Chicken chains... KFC, Popeyes, and some have Lees (awesome ).
There aren't many Starbucks, but tons of Dunkin Donuts.