What's the temperature where you are???

[chrissynemetz]

35°F light rain
3:25 a.m.

 

[Jenbirdee]

 

[muddy75]

46 and mostly cloudy

 

[Ponypoor]

We just got put on a severe weather alert, for flooding. The higher temps (above freezing to the low 40s) with so much ice and snow here yet, plus another 1.5" of rain starting tomorrow. We personally can't get flooded as we're high up above the stream below.

This happens every year as the rivers and lakes swell over the banks, and our ditches will all be full of water until the deep frost line finally melts.

34F and sprinkling.

Yup Same here. Freezing rain this morning - it was a bit dicey walking in the parking lot here at work - they really need to be more proactive in putting salt down - I am too old to be breaking something.

 

[Ponypoor]

08:25hrs south central Ontario Canada

0C and freezing drizzle. All surfaces have a lovely glazing of ice making walking and driving ’fun’.

Weather alerts out for rainfall and potential flooding.

 

[kikiruru]

Tuesday 726a 57f55 or 55f55

 

[sourland]

38F with a high of 52 predicted - overcast

 

[kikiruru]

Tuesday 4th of March 8.20a.m. early drizzle, mostly cloudy. 13 / 20.4kph SSE, Hg 68%, 22.9C / 73.2F top of 24C / 75F. Shower or two. Hazardous Surf Warning for New South Wales (cyclone Alfred ripples are far reaching).

Moon is 26%

TC Alfred to become the first system to cross NSW, south-east Queensland in 50 years​

3 hours ago​

By ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders​

Residents of south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales are on alert as Tropical Cyclone Alfred hovers off the coast. (ABC News: Bruce Mackenzie)

South-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales are bracing for the first tropical cyclone to make landfall since Zoe and Wanda in 1974.

While multiple systems, including Nancy in 1990, glanced the region, a direct hit from Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to result in a much greater impact, including widespread major flooding, destructive winds and dangerous surf.

And while Alfred is forecast to strike as a category two system — well below the intensity of many cyclones over northern Australia — its path over one of the most highly populated regions of Australia has amplified the threat.

"There is significantly more exposure [people and assets] than there is further north, and so while the probability is lower, the risk is much greater," said Tom Mortlock, Adjunct Fellow from the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW.

Torrential rain and wind to follow huge surf​

The initial indications from the ground that a cyclone is approaching is the building seas and swells, which by Monday were already producing waves above 8 metres off the Sunshine Coast, and near 7 metres off the Gold Coast.

In the short term, the surf will remain the most noticeable feature as Alfred moves south-east roughly parallel to the coast.

However, a sharp turn to the coast is forecast from Tuesday, leading to an increase in rain on Wednesday, followed later by a strengthening of winds.

By Thursday and Friday as Alfred nears the coast, very heavy rain is likely, which should accumulate to hundreds of millimetres near and south of the eye — triggering a Flood Watch for more than 20 rivers across both south-east Queensland and north-east NSW, including the high probability of major flooding.

The focus of heavy rain on the system's southern side is due to a cyclone's winds blowing clockwise in the southern hemisphere, meaning that north of the eye, winds blow in a drier offshore westerly direction.

Current modelling is indicating widespread totals from 200 to 500 millimetres this week from about the Sunshine Coast to Taree, although the topography of the Great Dividing Range could enhance falls even further.

The intense rainfall, which could include falls of 400mm in 24 hours near the eye, will also cause dangerous flash flooding with rapid rises in creek levels, while high tides and large waves also bring the risk of coastal inundation.

The total wave height from combined seas and swells is projected to reach around 6 to 8 metres, which would indicate maximum waves close to 15 metres.

When combined with abnormally high tides due to the lower air pressure, the wild surf brings the risk of severe coastal erosion.

After making landfall, Alfred is then likely to take an unusual south-west track over Australia's south-east inland, extending heavy rain as far south as Victoria this weekend.

Cyclonic winds above 125 kph​

While flooding is normally the main threat from lower rated tropical cyclones, wind also poses a serious risk near the eye of Alfred.

On Monday, the radius of gales extended up to 280 kilometres from the eye, and although the field of powerful winds could shrink before landfall, damaging gusts between 90 and 125 kph are possible along a stretch of coast more than 200km long.

Winds of this strength can bring down trees and may cause some damage to crops.

A small region of destructive gusts near the eye above 125 kph is possible if Alfred maintains a category two intensity while crossing the coast — at this stage most likely to arrive Thursday or early Friday between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.

Winds near the eye of a category two system can lead to significant damage to signs, trees and crops, and may lead to minor house damage and power failures.

Alfred to end southern cyclone drought​

Alfred's arrival this week ends a long five-decade drought without cyclones tracking down Australia's east coast.

The absence of systems contrasts with a period of frequent landfalls from the 1950s to 1970s which caused significant damage to both NSW and south-east Queensland.

The most powerful was the unnamed 1954 system which hit the Gold Coast as a category three storm, and reached as far south as Port Macquarie still as a category one.

Now often labelled the Great Gold Coast Cyclone, the 1954 system was responsible for dozens of deaths and its impacts were felt from the Sunshine Coast to Sydney, with heavy rainfall as far south as Tasmania.

However, since 1974, despite numerous ex-cyclones bringing widespread flooding, including Oswald in 2013, all cyclones south of Fraser Island have weakened before reaching the coast.

So why are we suddenly seeing cyclones migrating away from the tropics?

Alfred's southern landfall was first projected as a possibility early last week, a scenario finally solidified through the weekend when all major global models aligned on the trajectory.

The survival of Alfred well outside the tropics has been partially possible thanks to warmer than normal seas, which are around 27 degrees Celsius off the coast of Brisbane — just above the required threshold for a cyclone to sustain itself of 26.5C.

But even with warm seas, cyclones are often torn apart by other weather systems in the mid latitudes, a fate Alfred is avoiding due to strong outflow — which describes the process where the vast air rushing into the eye of a cyclone can escape at the top of the storm.

These favourable conditions are likely to maintain Alfred as a tropical cyclone until moving inland, however if Bureau of Meteorology meteorologists do declassify Alfred before he reaches the coast, it's important to understand that a change in status is not necessarily a downgrade.

Rather, in this case, declaring Alfred an ex-cyclone will only signify that the system has lost its tropical characteristics — meaning it's still as powerful as a cyclone, but the strongest winds have separated from the eye.

Regardless of Alfred's final status at landfall, this week's rare cyclone will lead to widespread severe weather along Australia's eastern seaboard.

ABC

Be safe

 

[Nomadicus]

62° and mostly cloudy

 

[kikiruru]

I hope so too, but not looking very likely. Poor Queensland ... it has copped a real beating this summer and much more rain about to hit.

Is this close to you